Frazier won the race for Hennepin County Attorney, but his slim margins are revealing

Hennepin County Attorney-elect Cedrick Frazier owes a debt of gratitude to residents of Minneapolis. The legislator and former public defender won 62% of votes within city limits, earning as many as 86% in a precinct in the Cedar-Riverside neighborhood. Still, he couldn’t have scored the very narrow win over his opponent Anders Folk without some suburban support. And despite promoting policies similar to outgoing County Attorney Mary Moriarty, an analysis of precinct-level data shows Frazier had a tougher race on his hands than Moriarty did as he sought to make his case to suburbanites. Take a look at Moriarty’s decisive 2022 win over Martha Holton Dimick, in which Moriarty earned nearly 70,000 more votes overall. The progressive former public defender was broadly popular in both Minneapolis and the suburbs, with Dimick’s big wins coming largely from the county’s wealthiest areas, like Minneapolis’ Ward 7 and its neighbor Edina, and rarefied enclaves like Deephaven and Woodland. Less than four years later, Moriarty had decided not to run for re-election. She had become a divisive figure held up by supporters as a stalwart for progressive policies, but criticized by others for what they perceived as a lenient approach to juvenile justice and a penchant for plea deals offering more grace to the bad guys than the good. Related: Hennepin County Attorney-elect Cedrick Frazier has promised to listen to people impacted by crime. What could that mean? In a race to replace her was Frazier, who had supported her 2022 campaign but said he wanted to improve on Moriarty’s track record for shaky relationships with law enforcement, and Folk, who said that under Moriarty, the office had “lost the thread of its core mission, which is public safety.” He worked at every possibility to tie Frazier and Moriarty together. Frazier won, but only by 8,300 votes . “It’s pretty stark when you look at the western part of Hennepin County versus the eastern part of Hennepin County,” said Timothy Lynch, an associate professor of political science at the University of St. Thomas. Gone are 2022’s narrow wins and losses in suburbs like Orono, Minnetrista, Wayzata and Independence. Instead, Folk dominated in those areas. Frazier won only 10 precincts west of Highway 169 and was less successful than Moriarty in population centers like Bloomington, Minnetonka and Eden Prairie. But in parts of Minneapolis, Frazier made headway compared to Moriarty – perhaps not a surprise for a candidate whose signs proclaimed “PROSECUTE ICE.” Related: Juvenile justice drives debate in race for Hennepin County Attorney Where Frazier maintained Moriarty’s suburban success were in inner-ring northwest suburbs like Brooklyn Park, Brooklyn Center, New Hope and Crystal. That may reflect his work in the region as a member of the New Hope City Council beginning in 2018, followed by his most recent role representing Crystal and New Hope at the state legislature. Despite their bases of support among voters, most of Frazier’s endorsements came from suburban officials while Folk had the backing of five Minneapolis City Council members and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. “I wouldn’t be surprised if both of the candidates sort of knew where their strengths were,” Lynch said, “and were trying to find endorsements from local folks and play on the other person’s turf, so to speak.” Brock Ray, a member of the New Hope City Council who endorsed Frazier, said “I think that his emphasis on prosecuting ICE was exactly what people here wanted to hear and see.” It was what the voters who poured out on Nov. 3 were looking for, he said. And it was a pattern he saw in his own race, which he lost. Ray’s opponent, Rachelle Hamilton, made it very clear, he said, “that she would have had the city council sign a separation ordinance, ban Flock cameras, ban data centers.” His focus, he said, was on business growth and affordable housing. “I think the way I talked about those issues was maybe a little bit more moderate than people wanted,” Ray said. In contrast, he said, Frazier “was very clear, right? And I certainly supported him. I agree with him completely. But he maybe spoke to that more clearly, and I think that clearly was what the people of New Hope were looking for.” Related